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Developing a theory of change
November 13, 2020
Monitoring and Evaluation
Why develop a Theory of Change?
A theory of change is the single most important document that any not-for-profit should have. It is the one thing that aligns everything that you do to your mission as an organisation.
When you develop your theory of change you working backwards from your long-term social mission and the actions you are taking to achieve it. The goal is clarity. Being able to clearly explain how what you do achieves your social mission is critical for convincing funders and other stakeholders that you are the right organisation to work with.
The second big advantage of developing a theory of change is monitoring and evaluation. You need to be able to convincingly tell your story and have the evidence to back it up. Your monitoring and evaluation plan should align with your theory of change i.e. if you have said that doing X will cause Y, you want to collect the evidence to prove it!
What does a theory of change look like?
Below is an example of a clear, graphically designed, theory of change that highlights key components you should include. It comes from a charity known as ShelterBox (https://www.shelterbox.org/), they provide emergency shelter to disaster-hit families.
Your theory of change does not need to look fancy, but should follow a similar logic flow: activities > outputs > outcomes.
If your organisation performs many activities, you may want to create a theory of change for each activity and then combine them into a single diagram. This will enable you to show how each activity comes together to deliver on your mission.
Steps to develop your theory of change
In many cases the theory of change that you develop for your organisation will not be as simple as the theory of change in the example above. You will likely perform many activities that all fit together to address a wider issue and ultimately achieve your mission. It is important that your theory of change demonstrates this.
Here is the basic process for developing your own theory of change. We would recommend you complete this as a collaborative effort with members of your organisations and beneficiary stakeholders.
1. Long term outcome / mission statement
The best way to develop a theory of change is by working backwards. Start with the big long-term impact that your organisation is looking to achieve. As a socially impactful organisation you probably already have a mission statement that clearly articulates your long-term goal.
2. Intermediate outcomes
What are the short or medium term impacts that are likely to flow from the activities you undertake that will ultimately lead to the long-term outcome. It can help helpful to view these as a chain of positive events that lead to the long-term goal. If your programme is tackling a problem from multiple angles you may have more than one chain and these chains may interact.
3. Outputs
Here you should answer the question - what are the direct outputs that your activity delivers? These should be easy to define and easy to measure.
4. Activities
What are the activities that your organisation does to address the issue? This could be advocacy, products or services or other things that you deliver to achieve the goal.
5. Putting it all together
Your theory of change should start with activities and end with your long-term outcomes. Each step in your theory of change represents an assumption that X will result in Y. In an ideal world you would want to be able to prove each of those assumptions but in the real world it is often not that easy. Our advice is to measure what you can and do your best to understand what you can’t. For example, if you are planting trees to reduce climate change, it will be very difficult to measure the exact impact every tree is having, but you can probably find peer-reviewed evidence and research to support some of the assumptions that you are making.
FAQs
Where can I get a theory of change template?
You can find a great resource right here, This is a template from The Development Impact and You organisation, which provides useful resources for social development.
What is the difference between a theory of change and program logic?
A theory of change is normally less structured and more diagrammatic, while program logic is usually expected to be more structured and show a clear (often linear) relationship between the program activities and the long-term goals.
What is a theory of change statement?
A simplified version of your theory of change model put into a text format. Like the model it should explain the links between how you get from the activities you deliver to the long-term outcome you are achieving.
Additional Resource Links
About Arco
Arco Tech helps socially impactful organisations tell their story through data and use technology to maximise their impact. We offer a free strategy workshop to learn more about your organisation and help you find new ways of measuring or extending your impact.
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